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jkkj, 29 pv 2008

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GojJjCծ OjC Dkubykukjn hnu Jn k<եl (1991 l 95-96), Ykk{Ǯ k<&J oj mcj 10 JwJ nlծ. c$ GojJjCծ HU om uiukj, DL&kkmL DOJ m#c, mo{ yvucU 1996 l 2007 oJYjl Ykk{Ǯ oj JkU 4.5 l 5.0 JwJwbhճեl cճ&ol jnu. ծ oJlu Dio

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Dp Ju Fvhwuv DL&l uv Hikծ ojuծ mj&mhC Ykk{Ǯ oj cnu pl. Fvhwuvծ oj n pj kmlb k{uu JclbJ[ vo& Jjl Dmu, lj l SJ DL&J mbJuhv Dn. Dhu DL&kkmL k{l ciCǮ mcOv J Ju FlJ hjm Glhov Il vn DC ciC-hjklu lǮ vo& Fvhwuvj Ju pl. kmlb Jcl k{Cl `Fvhwuv' n cnkծ IJ Dmu, lj kmlklu cniF& hjhj hlyby ll Gcl vn. JjC Yjll Fvhwuvծ oj vƵl JjCm ITJ Jbcl vo&bJ ([yuhDճ) kծjl Ilu pl. lj ynlb kJml obcO lm inJ Jbcl vo&bJ (mhDճ) u#l Ilu pl. ITJ ypjl khj nCN SJboj 435 pvmb- in, lboU, YF&ci lm mcb, huo kij DiJ Glhovb Jbcllu k{-IǮ mhlnJ D{k ITv ITJ Jbcl vo&bJ J{u pl. pkUhm ov Dk[b kubyv n mhlnJ vo&bJ pnj Ju pl Dml. vo&bJbl DL&lծ Ykk{Ǯ ov mk&OJ Ʈbl yy yvuu FbOv DC mk& DVOvb Yjcu- `kp' hjm vmuծ DL&lp%b cnCC Dn. lcU mk&mcv inJbJ[v mk&OJ GhYi Ilu pCN kmlb Jclbkj DOjl inJ Jbcl vo&bJ cniF& ojծ kmlv Ʈ$ h{ DC Ju, Dm DL&lp%bv kl.

DuJ[ j-hծ k<եl Yjlծ jdz GlhVծ k<&J oj 8.5 l 9.0 JwJwbkj hnu DC mllv lL Ju. jpij k{u, kdz lǮ hcC Iu, vճ&ll hϮb[ k{ Pu, Dճl k{vn yKlkju l (Current account deficit) cճ&ol jnu, ko iblkCJǮ hϮb[ DI Dhu oJ[ DJ knճu uiu, hjJdz uvծ ibipUln kկc k{ nl jnu. SJCծ `India Story' n mk&L&v pilJ ծ&, DlmJwծ, lm obli&l (jml) Dյkoծ k<ճ ju.
mk& mJjlcJ I[c[bv pilJ DL&kkmLn mL uYu. ծ JUl 2003 l 2007 cO pilJ GlhVk{Ǯ kin kOju DC pilJ Ykk{n cճ&ol mkժhlծ jnu.

 

F. 2007 GjO&l DcjJl kdz hhmbi GY jnu, pծ h[mo Dpvn `o k@u m'hmv `ouu m'hճեl Jc-DOJ hcCl mk&$ oml Dnl. hnl-hnl k mcm, DVOvhճեl hnu k lծ Dil KjKj lu Dlu iu. (Kj cnCp lu Jc Dlu iu!) FbOv mcmu piu lb[ k uiu.
Dpծ obli&l Ykk{u n Dbljjdz hյk&Yc Dn, n DhC u#l Ilu hnp. ʹcbl, kJmvյu k ijy Dյ mk& obl n Ykk{Ǯ Y[J G[u Dn. Pcyyk, FjJ, kvPSu, cv bmjK obl lj cniF& Ymcmjv hϮb[ jo mkժh OjC Ju Dn. vcOn (Sjk oc&U Dmuu) Ykk{v DծvJ Gi mkժh OjC Ju Dn. FbOvծ Ykl vv k{ Jukj pvcvm yLju Dn, Dյ ylc Dnl.
Dp Yjll cniF& mcm DOJ DC DծvJ Y[mkl Dn, ծ SJ JjC `miǮ okm' DhC vJl DvYku nl. pilJ hjmLlǮn uY Dhuu Pu nl. c$ Dl n Ʈ$ Phv youl Dn. obli&l cniF&, jpJdz DvƵll, ImjCm uiuu Dj cJ& DC Kvp luծ pilJ ypjhlu mllծ {l Yk mkեcU SJC `c[' yI[uu oml Dn.
ITJ cniF& vo&bJ (WPI) ml pvu 11.05 JwJ Glc hlUkj pTv hnu DC mcv cCm bl njhUv vIu J Jճ, Dյ Yl vc&C Pu. pvծ hnu Dk[l hu, [Pu b oj Jbo mjJjv k{kucU l Dk[ծ mk&$J Ykk{Ǯ ojl (pvju j D@H Fvhwuv) cǮ k{ nF&u, n Dvh#l vknl. SJ i L u#l Ilu hnp J, iu k<& Shu-c-pv 2007 JUl Ykk{Ǯ oj pclc 3-4 JwJ nl. DC lcU cճ&ol Ykk{n Dյ kU kpkh# DOJ pCkl. (Low base effect) Dm Dmu lj, mcv cCmu nuu jpծ ypjl plv JhUkj D l Dnl, JjC Kluhmv k[-hkhճեl k Yp-HUbhmv Jh[bhճեl mk& kmlb Yk mll k{l Dnl. DhC uY Il Dmuu mkbn oj Gbkl Dnl, ci l Fm$ku Dm knlJǮ Kծ& Dm, DLk Flj JCln. SJ kiȳծ `mkYk'lv DhC mbcC Jjl Dnl.
lp DJ[kj Dm o&kl J, pilJ ypjhl, iu SJծ k<&l, mk& kmlb Yk mjmj 30 JwJwbv k{u Dnl. KhoLե 62 JwJwbv, Klj J<cuծ 28 JwJwbv, mvծ 34 JwJwbv, lj luծ lyyu 94 JwJwbv (pkUpkU ohv!). cK KuvճJ DL&lծ Kvp lu n Dn. Dp luծ SJ hbhծ Jbcl mcj 135 [@uj Dn, p JkU hծ k<եl hծ h Pu Dn. cin DvJ IJ Dnl. iu Jn k<եlu jHճvjcOu Jc iblkCJ, v-Yjl mjK oblv k{l ciC, ʹcbl oblu DL&J k{Ǯ Glc oj, kij. c$ lp%b Dm nj Dn J, Kvp luծ Ykk{l mcj 70 JwJ Jj n vkkU mfծ Dn. (Speculation). vJlծ `hj h[uu' (!) `p-8' ʹcbl ob mbIvcO kj yjծ Tnhn Pu k mfypbkթ SJ$l, mbIlhC u{Ckj kծj (HJwl) Pu.
Dhu SJC ciCǮ 70 JwJ lu DhC Dճl Jjl DmucU Dbljjdz ypjhlu k{l Jclb HU Dhuu YikǮ uill. lu vճ&loj mbI (`DhJ') Dp pilJ Glhovծ 40 JwJ Glhov Jjl. `DhJ' vճb$C luծ Jclkj jnl. llu mo Djyճv (DcjJ oykcU?) luծ DOJ hjk JjCծ cv Ju Dmu, lj vճpj k Flj Jn ob lm mncl vn. hjCcl: vpJ Yk<l luծ Jcl Phv pj k{u vnl, lj kiv Ku Cծ Jwl JcǮ!
okok&um Dm J, Dp mk& hcK ob DL&J k{Ǯ il mbL Pu Dn. DcjJl, jhcO k phvcOn 2008 k 2009 mu 2-3 JwJwbkj GlhVk{ Dh#l vn. lcU hil olu luծ ciC Jc nF&u k lcU (J nF&v!) luծ Yk L[Hj Jc nTv 100 [@ujhճեl lu, Dm DYmJb Dbop Dn.

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mO cnCp 7 pv 2008 jp mbhuu mhlnm uv Hikծ- Fvhwuvծ ojv 11.05 JwJwb ƵKj iu. Fvhwuvծ n oj mcj 13 k<եhk& mljkj iuծ cnu iu Dn. DL&kkmLl k{l inJ ciCǮ hl&l J Ju FlJw Glhov-pvmb lk[ cnCp {yU DL&v Fvhwuv n. omN hjv GhuyO kml L[L[Jw hC lci OkCj hm DOJ, Dmn Fvhwuv mbJuhv kC&v Jjl F&u. DL&kkmL mo{lm Fvhwuvծ oj lv l hծ JwJwbojcv DmC DkյJ cvu pl, hC nծ oj ov DbJ mljkj iu, lj l OJwծ Fj jl. Dp 11 JwJwbkj iuu Fvhwuvu DJwl DCճծ lj vpJ Yk<l DiJ lm J< Glhovv c Ph Iճu nk. hC lm Jw vmuv Dm cnCl F&u J, Yjldzbv Dhu kmlb GhYi n 13 k<եhk& mljkj lj vճu nk Jbk Dhu յJwl DC Kծ& mkճkj lj ybOv Iuճu nk. hC Dյ hjmLll I[l c$ Gu. Jcl DCK k{l pCj Dh#v vƵkbl vmuu kmlb DkյJlh# pml Kjo Jv kCծ inJb Ju Dml. omN ypu Yk<l DCK { Ykv kml kJl lu cnCv khNbJ[v mypu mkl nl. plv kmlb bF&u DC hjCc DCK Ykk{u Dm J$cjl yU ou pl.
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OjCJl& n jpJjC DmucU lbv Dյ I[c[bcOv olu vijJbv `mj#l' kCծ lk Fs Dml. lcU Dbljjdz ypjl luծ Yk SJծ k<&l ohh Pu, lj hu k [Puծ obli&l Yk k{ v oCl DhC Ovl, ̳& k `mcpmk oJv' Dn, Dm cvl. kmlmLl Dյ Dn J, ojbiF& hϮb[ Yj Dhu lu Jbhv (BP, HP, ONGC, Indian Oil) vchC (k l mjJj cuJǮ DmucU) mnv Jjll. n yp DioǮ Dm Pu J, mjJj lbv Goj Dbl:JjCv L[Hj Ykk{ JjCm hjkvi ol. pj Jp&jK ou (`D@Fu y@C[md') lj mjJjǮ kdz mLl yI[l.
hblhOvbv vJl SJ hjCcJjJ ml mbilu J, lu Jbhvbv DhC mll ll kl iu, lj lu Dճl JjCmn lbJ[ vO jnCj vn! L[Jwl, Dbljjdz ypjhl pj luծ Yk k{l Dmlu, lj l Yk obli&l Jcll hjkl&l knճuծ nkl.
ijybv GhճJwl Dյ FbOvծ Ykl Jhl pժj Jjk, hC Ijynj hnu hTu mkl: (Duյv) i[l JCN cOc k G cOcki&bv hum L[Hj k{k Jbcl cpCl Jճ ij Dn! Dm Puv Jn k<եv Tp&-mj# (Oil Conservation) hϵvJ[ DhC ibYdz&v hnճu ui. huծ Dkmlk GhYikj L[Hj DU ymC GƮlծ Dn! Kluծn Dճl Yjl yjǮ Jjl k Dbljjdz ypjhlu { oj k Dio DuJ[ JUlu hճծ [@uj luvlu ImjC (Depreciation) cU Kluծ Ykn kOjuu D{Ull. (Dp Klub Yk k<&Yjl mcj 14 JwJwbv k{u Dnl.)
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DL&cb$uճ k jPkn& yBJ oIbn YcJ cniF& vճb$Cl Hj cnkծ Dml. `vճ&l-ybOv' (SJwmh& ybo), kmlb DճlյuJcO I, inJhճi kmlb Glhov uJl I Dm Ghճ DL&cb$ pll, lj `kpծ oj' k `hճծ Dbljjdz ojlu you' Dյ DճO jPkn& yBJJ[ Dmll. mk& Ghճճpv cծ& 2008 hmv Jmv JjCl Du. c$ lb o㵳 k hl# hjCc mcOvJjJ hcCl omuu vnl. DL& cb$uճծ SJ kj DOJNv Dl b[ jPkn& yBJ J&l Ju Dn. jPkn& yBJv Jj hku Gukl, Dm mbJln ou Dnl. jPkn& yBJ JoƮl kpoj k{ku DLk [@uj luvl hճ (hvn) kOju, Dm hϳlv Jju, pճi Dճl JjCl CN kmlb Jbcl L[Hj Jc nT Ju. c$ kpoj k{ku, lj DL&J k{Ǯ ilu L[ KU ymu. hճ pj mllv kOju lj vճ&lkj, hճ&v vճ&lkj Dkubyv DmCN Gibkj DC jpijbkj ib[blj T Ju, Dյ J$l Dp OjCJl& mh[u Dnl.
llծ, Dbljjdz IJ k ybOv bn Yv kC lbv chhlծ Dn. L[Jwl, DL&J OjCb DKC k DbcuypkC n Dlbl vpJ, JC k DknvlcJ hƯ yvu Dn, n DhC mkեv u#l ICծ vlbl DkյJl Dn.
mOծ hjmLll hOv ճu nk l { kpoju k hճ DOJ Jwlcv JjCu. DL&J k-ojkj L[Hj khjl hjCc nF&un, hC mO pթj Dn l cniF&kj vճb$C... vov lm Jlյu vO&j! cniF& pj nlynj iu lj Yk<lu GlhVk{n Kbu. Dp Dhu DL&kkmL 8 l 8.5 kժv SKo hճj Glժ Ju DC Ykk{ DJwl Dukj DCK ov hճNn kiv {C lk{ p[ pCj vn. JjC GojJjC- pilJJjC- mhO&lcJl bcU DL&kkmLu DYlhk& yUJ uYu Dn.
DL&lծ n llhjl Ghճ Pu. oj huu iճծ, J<#$lu GlhV k kյ<l: GlhoJl k{kv pilJ mljkj vC, u hճ& vn. myp k llmc IJ bkj vճb$C pժj Dmk, hC lu Dkmlk cnk oTv cuYl IJbJ[ ou&# nl Jc vճ.
yBJl hm kCN mcv Kloju Dp Kj hjlk (real return) cUC ojhml yvu Dn. mcj 8 kp cUl Dmu k Ykk{Ǯ oj lh# pj DOJ Dmu lj l Jn `cc mKծ k' DmCj vn! kojb Dh# lcU DL&lծ pml kpojծ DmCj Dn!
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kOյU hLcJ Dbop GlmnkO&J Dnl. obli&l 36 nkcv kYibhJ 21 kYibl mjmjh# DOJ hTm 18 pvhճեl h[u Dn. 11 kYibl hkmծ Dicv mcOvJjJ Dn. J< Glhov 2007-08 cO kկc Pu DmucU hkmU mbhhճեl kmlb oj Ku lu k Ykk{u L[Hj DU ymu. Dbljjdz ypjhl luծ Yk Dioj FlJ k{u Dnl J, lh{u k{ luvv mcծ Dmu. DL&l, pj Jn DIl I[u vn lj...
`pi n cboU' Dm mO pilJ DL&kkmL mkժh Dn. Jbynv, vml cbo vmv n cbo k Ykk{ (stagflation) Dյ onj kJjv piu mO imu Dn. h{u Jn cnvl luծ ciC Jc Pum (k mfypbv ll jm kvm Pum!) luծ Yk L[Hj hcCl Imjlu.
`KhoL&' (J<cu) k `Kvp lu' n Dpծ Ykk{ciծ hcK IJ Dnl. Dbljjdz mhO&cU, lb$%vcU, Glhovk{cU k Jճ&#clcU DiJ kmlb Yk JlJ k<& mLj jnu Dnl. Dճl uJ Phv Jc JucU Dhu olu kmlvc&Cb (manufacturing) Ykk{kj hl#hl# vճb$C jnuu Dn. (Ku Dճlu vjOj kjO JjCNbv n u#l Ik!) c$, Dl hijk{/ klvk{ Ul Cj vn DC { kpojn cpճu uilu. DiJ kmlb L[Hj Ykk{ lcU DU oml.
L[Jwl, mOծ Ykk{ n pj iu Jn k<ե luvl DOJ Dmu lj Yjldz DL&kkmL GojJjCծ OjCbcU() Dp DOJ m#c, Jճ&#c k oI& iblkCJm h<J yvu Dn. Ykk{Ǯ cUY nճu kU uiuծ, hC OjCJlեv mk& vC& Ilv DL&J vJ<bvծ hOv ճu hnp. kvJjC cn-IF& Jv cniF& DJwl Cj vn.
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